YPF Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Shale Growth & Strong Pricing

YPF boosts its 2026 outlook after record Q2 results, driven by surging shale output, higher oil prices and stronger refining performance.

Zacks Equity Research

3 min read

YPF Sociedad Anónima YPF reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of $3.07 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.84 per share by 8.1%. The bottom line increased from 13 cents per share reported a year earlier.

Revenues of $6.57 billion topped the consensus estimate of $6.05 billion by 8.2%. The top line increased 41.7% from $4.64 billion a year ago.

The strong quarterly results were driven by higher oil pricing, shale growth and record refinery throughput.

Shale oil production increased 46.6% to 212.7 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) reached a record $2.80 billion.

YPF Sociedad Anonima Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

YPF Sociedad Anonima price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | YPF Sociedad Anonima Quote

YPF's Shale Output Expands

Total hydrocarbon production averaged 544.4 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, nearly flat year over year. Crude oil production increased 7.1% to 265.5 MBbl/d despite a continued decline in conventional production.

Shale oil remained the key growth engine, accounting for 80% of total crude production. Natural gas production declined 6.2% to 37.3 million cubic meters per day (Mm3/d) from 39.7 Mm3/d a year earlier, while natural gas liquids output decreased 7.1% to 44.6 MBbl/d from 48 MBbl/d in the prior-year quarter.

YPF Benefits From Higher Realizations

The average crude oil realization increased 53.2% to $91.10 per barrel from $59.50 per barrel recorded in the year-ago quarter. The natural gas realization improved 3.1% to $4.20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) from $4.10 per MMBtu in the second quarter of 2025.

Upstream revenues increased 44.6% to $2.74 billion from $1.89 billion in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the business more than doubled to $1.72 billion.

YPF's Refining Operations Hit New Highs

Midstream and downstream revenues improved 51.4% to $5.68 billion. Refined-product sales volumes to third parties increased 12.5% to 5,193 thousand cubic meters (Km3) from 4,614 Km3 in the prior-year quarter.

Crude processing reached a record 350.8 MBbl/d, up 16.4%, while refinery utilization increased to 103.8% from 89.2%. Adjusted EBITDA excluding inventory price effects rose 106.8% to $967 million, with refining and marketing adjusted EBITDA reaching $23.20 per barrel.

YPF Posts Strong Profitability

Total operating expenses were $1.47 billion, down 4% from $1.53 billion a year earlier. Lifting costs decreased 31.4% to $8.40 per barrel of oil equivalent.

Operating income surged to $1.81 billion from $412 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA increased 149.5% to $2.80 billion, while the adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 43%, its strongest level in the past two decades.

YPF's Cash Generation Strengthens the Balance Sheet

Free cash flow totaled $824 million despite capital expenditures of $1.34 billion, which increased 16%. The company allocated 77% of quarterly investments to unconventional operations, reflecting its continued focus on shale development.

As of June 30, 2026, cash and short-term investments were $2.47 billion. Net debt totaled $7.65 billion, while the net leverage ratio was 1.09X.

YPF Raises Its 2026 Outlook

YPF raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to around $8 billion from approximately $6 billion, based partly on an assumed Brent price of $75 per barrel for the second half. The company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance in the range of $5.8-$6.2 billion, with roughly 70% directed toward shale operations.

Management expects average shale oil production to be around 215 MBbl/d in 2026 and an exit rate of approximately 250 MBbl/d. YPF projects free cash flow to be around $2 billion and expects year-end net leverage to approach 1X.

YPF’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

YPF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks from the energy sector are PBF Energy Inc. PBF, HF Sinclair Corporation DINO and Cactus, Inc. WHD. PBF and DINO sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) each, while WHD carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

PBF reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $6.22 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.05 per share.

As of June 30, 2026, PBF had total debt of $1.75 billion, and cash and cash equivalents of $894.1 million.

HF Sinclair reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $5.31 per share, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.39 per share.

As of June 30, 2026, DINO had total debt of $2.77 billion, and cash and cash equivalents of $2.26 billion.

Cactus reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 93 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents per share.

As of June 30, 2026, WHD had cash and cash equivalents of $365 million.

Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"

Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.

This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.

Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners Up

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report