Will Nebius' Asset-Light Model Drive Further Margin Expansion in 2027?

Nebius Group N.V. NBIS is entering 2027 with a business model designed to scale capacity while increasing profitability. In the second quarter of 2026, the company generated Group revenue of $582 million, up 454% year over year, while annualized run-rate revenue reached $3 billion. Group adjusted EBITDA was $236 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 41%, compared with 32% in the first quarter. The Nebius AI business generated a 50% adjusted EBITDA margin. On the last earnings call, management highlighted that the increase in profitability was supported by higher revenue, the early contribution of the asset-light model, Token Factory and recent acquisitions.

The asset-light model could provide an additional path for Nebius to expand capacity without requiring significant balance sheet capital. Under this model, partners finance, build and operate facilities, while Nebius provides its full-stack platform, demand and value-added services on top of the partners’ infrastructure. On the last earnings call, management noted that this approach delivers high-margin revenue while requiring minimum balance sheet capital and has the potential to unlock additional capacity in 2027 and beyond. The company also stated that it had received dozens of inquiries from potential partners with significant capacity and capital but without the technology or market access needed to monetize it.

Management expects margin expansion to continue beyond 2026. The company has visibility into pricing and expects capacity coming online from its own data centers to begin improving margins in the second half of 2027. In addition, Nebius expects the asset-light model, along with high-value services such as agentic and inference solutions, to contribute an increasing share of revenue while supporting even higher margins.

For 2026, Nebius reaffirmed annualized run-rate revenue guidance of $7 billion to $9 billion, Group revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, Group adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 40% and capital expenditures of $20 billion to $25 billion. The company expects to deploy significantly more capacity in 2027, while 2027 formal guidance will be provided later this year.

Taking a Look at NBIS’ Competitors

CoreWeave’s CRWV margins expanded in the second quarter as scale increasingly translated into operating leverage. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.5 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 59%, while adjusted operating income increased to $128 million from $21 million in the prior quarter, resulting in a 5% adjusted operating margin despite significant ramp costs. Management highlighted that new contracts signed in the second quarter carried contribution margins 5-10 percentage points above those added in recent quarters. Margin-accretive businesses, including storage, CPU, networking and software, exceeded $400 million in ARR. The company expects margins to continue expanding sequentially in the third and fourth quarters, with adjusted operating margins reaching the low teens in the fourth quarter.

Microsoft MSFT capitalizes on AI business momentum and Copilot adoption alongside accelerating Azure cloud infrastructure expansion. Strong Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud demand has been propelling Productivity and Business Processes revenue growth. ARPU is increasing through E5 and M365 Copilot uptake across key segments. Strategic execution through expanding scale and enterprise customer growth is driving non-AI services. The company reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of $90 billion, which increased 18% year over year. Gross margin reached $60.5 billion, up about 15% year over year. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Microsoft expects total company revenues between $89.85 billion and $90.95 billion, suggesting growth of roughly 16% to 17%.

NBIS Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of Nebius gained 52.1% in the past month compared with the Internet – Software and Services industry’s growth of 12.1%.

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In terms of price/book, NBIS’ shares are trading at 6.79X, below the Internet Software Services industry’s 20.98X.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NBIS’ earnings for 2026 has been revised downward over the past 60 days.

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NBIS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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