There is no guarantee that New Hampshire Democrats will retake the state House of Representatives in November. But if they do, the path to victory goes through Manchester Ward 12, Goffstown, Londonderry, Sunapee, and Bedford.  

An analysis of 2024 election results by the Bulletin has found that Republicans in those towns are the most vulnerable should a “blue wave” hit New Hampshire this fall. In each of those five voting districts, a Democrat came within 0.5% of beating a Republican in the 2024 general election. 

Two weeks after the primary, state legislative candidates have a tight six weeks until the Nov. 3 election, and recent state and national polls indicate Democrats have some advantages across the ballot. 

But whether Democrats can flip the House will come down to a couple dozen seats, each of which Republicans won by less than 2% of the vote last election.

To retake the 400-seat chamber, Democrats must win 23 more seats than the 178 they carried in 2024. That is doable if the party can outperform its 2024 results by just a few percentage points: Democrats came within 2% of Republicans in 29 seats last election, and within 3% by an additional eight seats. 

Democrats may have other numerical advantages, the Bulletin’s analysis suggests: They fielded more candidates than Republicans did across the House map this year, have nearly twice as many candidates in safe, uncontested seats than Republicans do, and saw a higher turnout in the Sept. 8 primaries. All of those conditions have not been seen in the Granite State since 2018, the last time Democrats took control of the state House, according to records by the Associated Press and Ballotpedia. 

Here’s what to know about the results of the Sept. 8 House primaries, and what the candidate map can tell us about the battle for the New Hampshire House. 

11 lawmakers ousted in primaries

The September primaries saw 11 sitting House representatives lose their seats, with 10 of them Republicans.  

But there was no clear ideological pattern to the defeats. 

One defeated Republican lawmaker, Stephen Pearson, had been an ardent opponent of his party’s “right to work” bill in 2025, joining Democrats to help defeat it, 200-180. 

Another, Brian Taylor, bucked fellow Republicans by voting against bills to prevent “sanctuary city” immigration policies, expand education freedom accounts, and establish processes for school book removals, though 74% of the time he voted with his party. 

But another defeated Republican lawmaker, Matt Sabourin dit Choinière, attracted national attention after a National Public Radio story revealed he had unsuccessfully advanced an amendment to add Holocaust skeptics to the state’s Commission on Holocaust and Genocide Studies. He also helped Holocaust deniers testify before a state committee, NPR reported. 

And the primaries claimed some longstanding Republicans, including Rep. Ralph Boehm, a 16-year state representative, and Rep. David Milz, a longstanding chairman of the House Public Works and Highways committee.

The lone Democratic incumbent defeated in the primary was Rep. John Joseph Stone, a first-term member who served on the Fish and Game and Marine Resources Committee. 

The 11 defeats of incumbents this month is less than the state’s average of 13.3 incumbent defeats from 2010 to 2024, according to Ballotpedia. And the percentage, 2.75%, is slightly below the 3.4% average of incumbents who lost primaries nationwide. 

Democrats competing for more seats this year

One metric for party enthusiasm is in the number of seats that aren’t competitive.

With 400 seats, and some areas that are traditionally staunchly Republican or Democratic, often neither party is able to recruit candidates to run in each district. But this year, for the first time since 2018, there are more Republican candidate vacancies than Democratic ones.

Democrats failed to recruit a candidate for 42 House seats this year, according to a tally of Secretary of State’s Office data.  Republicans did not field a candidate for 75 House seats. That means Republicans can count on 42 guaranteed seats and Democrats 75 — barring any successful write-in campaigns or third-party candidates. 

Meanwhile, five Republicans are facing a general election with no opponents. In contrast, 34 Democrats are competing in districts with no opponents. 

Republican candidates who have a guaranteed victory in November include Rep. Mike Ouellet, in Colebrook, Columbia, Erving’s Location, and Stewartstown; Rep. Lori Korzen, in Berlin, Carroll, Jefferson, Kilkenny and Whitefield; Rep. Sayra DeVito, in Danville; and Matthew Brooks and Kevin Major in Sandown. 

The invincible Democrats include: 

  • Rep. Dru Fox, an incumbent in Keene Ward 3 
  • Christine Parshall, a candidate in Harrisville, Marlborough, Nelson, Roxbury and Sullivan 
  • Rep. Jared Sullivan, an incumbent in Bethlehem and Franconia
  • Reps. Mary Hakken-Phillips, Russell Muirhead, Ellen Rockmore, and Terry Spahr, incumbents in Hanover and Lyme 
  • Rep. Laurel Stavis, an incumbent in Lebanon Ward 1
  • Kathryn Brennan, a candidate in Lebanon Ward 2
  • Zoe Hill, a candidate in Lebanon Ward 3
  • Rep. David Fracht, an incumbent in Enfield 
  • Rep. Thomas Cormen, an incumbent in Lebanon Wards 1, 2, and 3
  • Rep. Tracy Anne Bricchi, an incumbent in Concord Ward 1
  • Rep. Beth Richards, an incumbent in Concord Ward 3
  • Rep. Mary Jane Wallner, an incumbent in Concord Ward 5
  • Rep. Matt Hicks, an incumbent in Concord Ward 10 
  • Rep. Kris Schultz, an incumbent in Concord Wards 4, 9, and 10
  • Reps. Ellen Read and Michael Cahill, incumbents in Newfields and Newmarket
  • Charlotte DiLorenzo, a candidate in Newfields and Newmarket
  • Anna Howard, a candidate in Newington and Portsmouth Ward 1
  • Rebecca Audet, a candidate in New Castle and Portsmouth Ward 5
  • Rep. Buzz Scherr, an incumbent in Portsmouth Ward 3
  • Rep. Gerald Ward, an incumbent in Portsmouth Ward 4
  • Rep. Carrie Sorensen, an incumbent in Portsmouth Ward 2 
  • Rep. Alexis Simpson, an incumbent in Exeter, Newfields, Newmarket, and Stratham
  • Kate Cook, a candidate in New Castle, Newington, and Portsmouth Wards 1 and 5
  • Reps. Loren Selig, Timothy Horrigan, and Wayne Burton, incumbents in Durham
  • Siena Schaier, a candidate in Durham, 
  • Rep. Peter Schmidt, an incumbent in Dover Ward 1
  • Samuel Chouinard, a candidate in Dover Ward 2, and 
  • Rep. Gary Gilmore, an incumbent in Dover Ward 3. 

The rest of the 42 and 75 uncontested seats are in multi-candidate districts, meaning the party gets a guaranteed seat but individual candidates must still compete. For instance, one party might have three candidates competing for three available seats, while the other party has two candidates competing for the three seats. The result: The first party will automatically win one seat, but both parties’ candidates must still campaign to ensure they are in the top three.

The uncontested races represent the safe seats, typically in the districts and regions of the state in which one party does well and there are few interested in running in opposition. For Republicans, those districts include North Country towns like Lancaster and Jefferson and southern strongholds like Salem, Londonderry, and Atkinson. For Democrats, that uncontested territory includes the cities of Dover, Keene, Lebanon, Manchester, Nashua, and Portsmouth, and college towns like Durham, Hanover, and Plymouth, according to the numbers.

Winning the uncontested races will not automatically deliver either party the House. But in New Hampshire, differences in candidate recruitment numbers do tend to correlate to the party’s success in the general election, according to Ballotpedia.

The seats Democrats must win and Republicans must defend

In 2024, Republicans built on their slim, 2023-2024 majority in the House by winning a 44-seat advantage over Democrats. Now, holding onto control of at least half of those seats will be essential for Republicans to keep a firewall and maintain control. 

For Democrats, the 23 most vulnerable Republican seats based on 2024 election results can be found in:

  • Manchester Ward 12 (Hillsborough Dist. 18): A two-seat district in which Republican Steven Kesselring beat Democrat Juliet Smith by 0.08%.
  • Goffstown (Hillsborough Dist. 29): A four-seat district in which Republican Henry Giasson beat Democrat Jim Craig by 0.23%.
  • Londonderry (Rockingham Dist. 16): A seven-seat district in which Republicans won all seven seats, but Democrat Anne Fenn came within 0.41% of beating Republican Wayne MacDonald. 
  • Sunapee (Sullivan Dist. 5): A single-seat district where Republican George Grant beat Democrat Linda Tanner by 0.42%.
  • Bedford (Hillsborough Dist. 2): A seven-seat district in which Democrat John Fitzgerald came within 0.48% of defeating Republican John Schneller.
  • Merrimack (Hillsborough Dist. 12): An eight-seat district in which Democrat Kathryn Stack came within 0.68% of beating Republican Jeanine Notter.
  • Northwood and Nottingham (Rockingham Dist. 1): A three-seat district in which Democrat Hal Rafter came within 0.71% of defeating Republican Paul Tudor.
  • Derry (Rockingham Dist. 13): A 10-seat all-Republican district in which Democrat Elle Gallo came within 0.79% of defeating Republican Richard Tripp.
  • Hampton (Rockingham Dist. 29): A four-seat district held mostly by Democrats, in which Republican Nicholas Bridle beat Democrat Alan Blair by 0.81%.
  • Croydon and Claremont (Sullivan Dist. 6): A three-seat district held by two Democrats and a Republican, in which Republican Wayne Hemingway defeated Democrat Gary Merchant by 0.89%.
  • Bath, Lisbon, Littleton, Lyman, Monroe, Sugar Hill (Grafton Dist. 1): A three-seat all-Republican district where Republican Calvin Beaulier beat Democrat Linda Massimilla by 0.93%.
  • Nashua Ward 9 (Hillsborough Dist. 10): A three-seat district in which Democrat Melbourne Moran came within 1% of beating Republican Bill Ohm. 
  • Rochester Wards 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 (Strafford Dist. 19): A three-seat district in which Republican Kelley Potenza defeated Democrat Daniel Fitzpatrick by 1.05%.
  • Lyndeborough, Mont Vernon, and New Boston (Hillsborough Dist. 42): A three-seat, all-Republican district in which Democrat Brian Paquette came within 1.14% of beating Republican Gerald Griffin.
  • Milford (Hillsborough Dist. 43): A four-seat, split-party district in which Republican Gary Daniels beat Democrat Scott Lawrence by 1.22%.
  • Madison, Moultonborough, and Tamworth (Carroll Dist. 3): A two-seat, all Republican district in which Democrat Kim Johnson fell short of defeating Republican Joseph Hamblen by 1.23%.
  • Manchester Wards 6, 8, and 9 (Hillsborough Dist. 39): A two-seat Republican district in which Republican Jonathan Morton held off Democrat Maxine Mosley by 1.25%.
  • Alstead, Gilsum, and Marlow (Cheshire Dist. 9): A single-seat district where Republican Rich Nalevanko beat Democrat Daniel Eaton by 1.30%.
  • Hudson (Hillsborough Dist. 13): A six-seat, all Republican district in which Democrat John Knowles came within 1.49% of beating Republican Jeremy Slottje.
  • Farmington (Strafford Dist. 1): A two-seat Republican district in which Republican Robley Hall defeated Democrat Manny Krasner by 1.69%.
  • Laconia Wards 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (Belknap Dist. 5): A four-seat district in which Democrat Jon Hildreth fell short of beating Steven Bogert by 1.71%.
  • Dunbarton and Hooksett (Merrimack Dist. 10): A four-seat, all Republican district in which Republican Yury Polozov defeated Democrat William Lynch by 1.72%.