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Turnout. The 2018 DFL primary turnout — about 583,000 in the contested governor’s race; a bit more than 23% of registered voters turned out that year — was the most robust in many years, but the DFL-endorsed progressive candidate still lost. One thought would be that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan needs a big turnout against Rep. Angie Craig, especially of younger, more progressive voters. On the other hand, maybe the kind of engaged Democrats who turn out in primaries have shifted left and will back Flanagan. As I noted last week, a lot has changed since 2018, including Gen Z entering the electorate; disgust with the Democratic establishment; George Floyd’s murder; and Operation Metro Surge.

Demographics. The median age of Democratic primary voters nationwide is 55 this year (so, half are older). Craig is winning older voters, according to last week’s KSTP poll. Can Flanagan get the yutes out?

CD2 turnout. Unclear to me how turnout affects the race to replace Craig, where Rep. Kaela Berg, Sen. Matt Klein, and DFL-endorsed Matt Little are running. The competitive primary almost certainly helps Craig because those voters know and seem to like her.

Legislative primaries can tell us something. Here’s an MPR rundown of 11 legislative primaries. You can’t make broad conclusions about the state’s politics based on a single legislative primary. Sen. Ron Latz, for instance, seems to be facing some serious local resistance. But if we see a batch of incumbents losing, that might tell us something.

Another Trump Minnesota loss? Despite his claims to the contrary, Donald Trump doesn’t play well here, having lost soundly in the 2016 caucus, and again in three presidential contests. He’s a fancy coastal con man, and most Minnesotans see through it. But GOP primary voters are the exception, and he has a near perfect record in GOP endorsements. Pillow mogul Mike Lindell needs Trump to keep the winning streak alive, while House Speaker Lisa Demuth needs a bigger turnout among normie suburbanites who will go for something more staid than Lindell’s frenetic pyrotechnics.

The fate of progressive prosecutors. Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty, the former chief public defender, was among a wave of urban progressive prosecutors elected in recent years, but is leaving after a single term. Progressive prosecutors in other jurisdictions were often scapegoated for the pandemic-era spike in crime. Rep. Cedric Frazier won the DFL endorsement and is a former public defender. Anders Folk occupies a more conventional prosecutor lane, having served as acting U.S. attorney.