Let’s take a quick look at where the race for Ohio Governor stands.  But first, a caveat.  This is not a prediction about who will win the November 3 election.  Polls are not predictions, and the BGSU Poll is no different from any others in that way.  Instead, surveys are a snapshot of where we think likely voters stand at the time the survey is administered.

The Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Network has released the September 2026 BGSU Poll, a web-based survey of 1,000 likely Ohio voters conducted from September 1-10, 2026. The poll has a margin of error of just about four percentage points.

Currently Democrat Dr. Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy 48% to 45%, which places this race clearly within the margin of error.  More specifically, that means we are pretty confident that Dr. Acton’s actual level of support is somewhere between 44% and 52% and Mr. Ramaswamy’s is between 41% and 49%.  Because those ranges overlap, the race is said to be a statistical tie.

Currently Dr, Acton leads among Independents 45% to 34%.  Women, younger voters, Blacks, and Hispanics support her, while men and older and white voters prefer Mr. Ramaswamy.  Those with a four-year degree or more overwhelmingly support Dr. Acton, while those without a four-year degree more narrowly support Mr. Ramaswamy.   These are not surprising results, as these are not new relationships in the current American political landscape.

Perhaps the most interesting finding is with regard to political party. As expected, Democrats support Dr. Acton, while Republicans support Mr. Ramaswamy.  However, the difference in the strength of that partisan support may be meaningful.  Currently, 96% of Democrats support Dr. Acton, while 87% of Republicans support Mr. Ramaswamy.  Five precent of Republicans support Libertarian candidate Don Kissick, while three percent say they plan to vote for someone else.

One may conclude from this that Dr. Acton has already solidified her support with the Democratic base, while Mr. Ramaswamy has some work to do there.  One potential problem with doing that, though, is that campaign messages that may appeal to the Republican base may be off-putting to moderates and Independents.

Perhaps the safer route the Ramaswamy campaign and its supporters will take with the huge amount of money they have to spend is just to continue personally attacking Dr. Acton to try to increase her “unfavorables.”  Currently Dr. Acton holds a net favorable/unfavorable rating of -1, while Mr. Ramaswamy has a net favorability rating of -11.

Finally, political scientists often think of mid-term elections as either a referendum on the incumbent or as being driven by the increased enthusiasm of the party that most recently lost the presidency.  In other words, people vote on whether they think the party occupying the White House is doing a good job, or the voters who lost that election become extra energized to show up to the polls in the mid-term.

Currently both of these factors seem to be helping the Democrats.  President Donald Trump is -16 in net favorability, and Democratic-leaning voters are more enthusiastic than Republican voters about showing up to vote by a factor of nearly two to one.

Given that it’s football season, why not conclude with a potentially over-used sports metaphor? The Ohio Governor’s election is tied, but the Acton campaign has they ball and they are at the 50 yard line (or, if you’re in Canada, the 55 yard line).  There’s two minutes to go.  Still anyone’s ballgame.