An Economic Policy Institute calculator, as reported by Axios, estimates that the average Ohio federal income-tax filer who owes tax after credits would shoulder about $1,670 to finance President Donald Trump’s mass-deportation campaign.

The methodology allocates a projected $268.9 billion federal cost according to each state’s share of federal income taxes. Ohio’s share is nearly $6.9 billion through the remainder of Trump’s term.

That is an allocation of projected federal spending, not a new charge on an Ohio tax return. But Ohioans will pay again if enforcement removes workers and destabilizes the families, businesses and tax base Ohio needs to grow.

The administration says its enforcement targets the “worst of the worst.” The available Ohio data show a broader reach.

A review of federal records found that ICE detained 7,756 people in Ohio between January 2025 and March 2026. Fewer than 5% had been convicted of a violent offense; 47% had no criminal history. Some had pending charges or nonviolent convictions, including traffic-related offenses such as driving without a license.

People who present genuine threats should remain enforcement priorities, but these figures do not describe a narrowly targeted public-safety operation.

Detention is not deportation, but it often becomes the route to removal.

A Deportation Data Project analysis found that, among people with no criminal conviction or preexisting final removal order, the share deported within the first 60 days after being booked into detention roughly doubled during the administration’s first year.

People may also be detained for immigration-status violations — such as a visa overstay or the expiration of temporary protection — that are not criminal convictions.

Families separated, children losing parents, and neighbors disappearing are the human costs. The economic costs are also measurable.

A May 2026 OhioMeansJobs snapshot listed 126,739 online job postings, including 4,596 for registered nurses. The report cautions that postings are not a complete count of unique vacancies, but they show employer demand.

Ohio’s workforce already depends on immigrants. They make up 15.7% of personal-care aides, 9.1% of transportation and warehousing workers, 7.6% of manufacturing workers, 6.9% of agricultural workers and 6.2% of construction workers, compared with 6.2% of Ohio’s workforce overall, according to an American Immigration Council analysis.

The American Immigration Council’s definition includes naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, temporary visa holders, refugees, asylees and undocumented immigrants. Not every worker is subject to deportation.

The point is how deeply immigration is woven into Ohio’s workforce. Removing or stripping work authorization from even a fraction of these workers can mean longer waits for home care, delayed construction and production, higher business costs and higher prices for consumers.

Established companies are unlikely to move a factory overnight. The more realistic risk is lost work and lost investment.

A 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research working paper found that for every six likely undocumented men who lost employment after increased ICE activity, one U.S.-born man without a college degree also lost employment.

When employers cannot find workers, they may cut production, turn down work or place the next expansion where labor is easier to find.

Immigrant households also support Ohio’s public finances. In 2023, they paid $7.3 billion in federal, state, and local taxes and retained $20 billion in spending power, according to the American Immigration Council.

Entrepreneurs are a separate economic asset. More than 38,200 immigrant entrepreneurs — 8.2% of Ohio’s entrepreneurs — generated $1 billion in business income in 2023.

They create jobs, fill storefronts and strengthen local tax bases. A state that makes immigrant families feel unwelcome risks losing not only current workers, but also the next generation of business owners.

Ohio’s population story is uneven. JobsOhio’s summary of new Census estimates says the state added 101,065 residents since 2020, with net migration contributing 146,471.

Census estimates put Cleveland’s 2025 population at 363,608, 2.4% below its 2020 base. Older cities and rural communities need residents to occupy homes, support schools and sustain local businesses.

I helped found Global Cleveland because a region that had lost population could not afford to treat newcomers as a threat. That was economic self-preservation.

JobsOhio understands the competition. It offers up to $15,000 for each qualifying out-of-state STEM or technical hire above an employer’s three-year baseline.

Paying companies to recruit workers while spending billions to drive other workers away is not a coherent development strategy.

Immigration is not a substitute for better wages, safer workplaces or serious training for Ohioans.

Ohio should invest in all three while enforcing against genuine threats. But Gov. Mike DeWine has acknowledged that Ohio needs immigrants. He and JobsOhio should say plainly that broad removal undermines Ohio’s workforce strategy.

The state’s congressional delegation should press for legal employment channels that match workforce needs, dependable seasonal-worker programs and a workable legal-status process for long-settled residents without serious criminal records.

Ohio cannot recruit workers, attract investment, and repopulate communities while paying nearly $6.9 billion to make itself smaller.

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