McDonald's Pushes 50,000-Store Goal to 2028: Is It Slowing Growth?

MCD is pushing its 50,000-store goal to 2028 as U.S. traffic softens, but disciplined expansion and 2,600 planned 2026 openings support growth.

Zacks Equity Research

2 min read

McDonald's Corporation MCD is taking a slightly more measured approach to restaurant expansion, pushing its goal of reaching 50,000 locations globally to 2028 from the end of 2027. The shift may raise concerns that growth is losing momentum, but management characterized the move as a disciplined adjustment rather than a change in its long-term expansion strategy.

Management said cumulative inflation in development costs and a more pressured consumer environment prompted a review of the restaurant pipeline. The company is prioritizing attractive returns and quality of new locations over simply adding units. Importantly, McDonald’s still expects to open roughly 2,600 gross restaurants in 2026, which management described as the fastest period of restaurant growth in its history.

The more notable growth concern currently lies in the U.S. business. Second-quarter U.S. comparable sales increased just 0.8%, as inconsistent execution of value offerings, reduced digital promotions and an overly crowded marketing calendar weighed on traffic. U.S. comparable sales were also slightly negative in July, indicating that the recovery could take time.

Still, management remains confident in the growth opportunity. New beverages are generating encouraging incremental traffic and higher checks, while the upcoming McDonald’s > NEXT strategy is designed to improve food quality, hospitality and restaurant productivity.

QSR and YUM Maintain Aggressive Restaurant Growth

McDonald’s is moderating its expansion pace, but competitors continue to pursue substantial unit growth. The owner of Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, Restaurant Brands International QSR targets 5% or more net restaurant growth by 2028. Restaurant Brands International’s strategy combines new-store development with investments in existing locations, particularly Burger King’s U.S. turnaround program.

Through KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and Habit Burger & Grill, Yum! Brands YUM has an even larger global footprint, with more than 63,000 restaurants across 155 countries and territories. Yum! Brands’ franchise-heavy model continues to support international expansion and provides significant scope for adding units.

Against this backdrop, McDonald’s decision to move its 50,000-store milestone to 2028 reflects a more selective approach rather than an abandonment of growth. Management emphasized that inflation-driven development costs and softer consumer conditions require greater focus on returns. With about 2,600 gross openings still expected in 2026, MCD’s expansion engine remains active.

MCD’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

McDonald’s shares have lost 17.6% in the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry, the broader Retail and Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 index.

Price Performance

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In terms of its forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio, MCD is trading at 20.23, down from the industry’s 21.65.

MCD P/E (F12M)

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MCD’s earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have trended downward in the past 30 days. The revised estimates for 2026 and 2027 imply year-over-year growth of 5.6% and 8.1%, respectively.

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MCD currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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