True Cost of Flying Leading up to the 2026 Shutdown
Source: The U.S. Airfare Watch Index from Upgraded Points
The TSA funding lapse occurred at a challenging moment for the airline industry. According to The U.S. Airfare Watch Index from Upgraded Points, inflation-adjusted domestic airfares resumed their long-term decline following the post-pandemic travel recovery, continuing a trend that has made advertised ticket prices more affordable over time. However, the index measures base airfares and does not capture many taxes, fees, or ancillary charges that travelers often pay separately. In recent years, airlines have increasingly unbundled services such as checked baggage, seat selection, onboard meals, and other amenities, allowing carriers to advertise lower ticket prices while generating additional revenue through optional purchases.
That combination of lower inflation-adjusted base fares and higher operating costs left many airlines operating with tighter margins heading into 2026. As carriers sought to balance competitive ticket pricing with rising labor, maintenance, airport, and fuel expenses, ancillary fees became an increasingly important source of revenue. That meant the aviation industry entered the TSA funding lapse with less flexibility to absorb additional operational disruptions. Although changes in TSA throughput cannot be attributed solely to passenger demand, the funding lapse introduced another layer of uncertainty for airlines and airports already navigating a complex economic environment.
For complete results, see Which Airports Were Most Impacted by the TSA Funding Lapse? on Upgraded Points.
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