Higher GMV, More Consumers: What Could Drive Affirm's Q4 Earnings?

Leading buy now, pay later (BNPL) solution provider Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Aug. 27, 2026, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s bottom line is currently pegged at earnings of 33 cents per share on revenues of $1.11 billion.

The fiscal fourth-quarter earnings estimate has witnessed two downward revisions over the past 60 days against no movement in the opposite direction. However, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year jump of 65%. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 26.4%.

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For full-year fiscal 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm’s revenues is pegged at $4.21 billion, implying a rise of 30.5% year over year. The consensus mark for the current fiscal year’s EPS is pegged at $1.24, implying a massive improvement from 15 cents a year ago.

Affirm beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 74.9%.

Affirm Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Affirm Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Affirm Holdings, Inc. Quote

Affirm’s Q4 Earnings Whispers

However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

AFRM currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Q4 Factors to Note for Affirm

Merchant network revenues are likely to have benefited from an expanding Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV). The active merchants figure is expected to have witnessed a significant boost in the fiscal fourth quarter due to the company’s ability to strike deals with different businesses. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for merchant network revenues is pegged at $306.1 million, indicating a 27.8% rise from the prior-year quarter’s figure. 

The consensus mark for GMV for the fiscal fourth quarter implies 29.3% growth from the prior-year quarter’s number. Management anticipates the metric to be in the range of $13.15-$13.45 billion. For full-year fiscal 2026, it expects GMV to reach $49.265-$49.565 billion.

An increase in the number of transactions conducted through the Affirm platform is likely to have been supported by higher active merchants and consumers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for active consumers indicates 20.2% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for transactions per active consumer suggests a 13.3% rise from the year-ago period.

An increase in the usage of Affirm’s virtual cards is expected to have driven card network revenues. The consensus mark for card network revenues indicates a 13% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s number. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest income is pegged at $542.1 million, which implies a 29.4% year-over-year rise.

The consensus mark for servicing income is pegged at $45.4 million, which indicates a 33.9% jump from the year-ago quarter. However, the quarterly results are likely to have witnessed higher transaction costs. Yet, the company expects the adjusted operating margin to be within 27.5-29.5%.

How Did Other Payments Companies Perform?

Companies like American Express Company AXP, Synchrony Financial SYF and Visa Inc. V have already announced results for the June quarter. Here’s how they have performed:

American Express reported second-quarter 2026 EPS of $4.53, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%. The bottom line advanced 11% year over year. The strong quarterly results were driven by increased Card Member spending, higher net interest income and improved card fee growth. However, the upside was partly offset by AXP’s elevated operating expenses.

Synchrony Financial reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.59, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 24.5%, and the bottom line increased 3.6% year over year. The quarterly results were driven by record purchase volume, accelerated growth in ending loan receivables despite elevated payment behavior, continued credit strength and an expansion in net interest margin. However, SYF’s higher operating expenses and an increase in the provision for credit losses partly offset these positives.

Visa delivered third-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.32 per share, up 11% year over year and beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.8%. The strong quarterly results reflected resilient spending trends, higher cross-border volumes and solid network activity, including a 10% year-over-year increase in payments volume on a constant-dollar basis. However, the upside was partly offset by Visa’s increased operating expenses.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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