Where Natural Disasters Are Having the Biggest Impact on the Nation's Food Supply

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High grocery prices have been a defining economic story in recent years, driven by a combination of factors including pandemic-related supply chain breakdowns and labor shortages. However, an increasingly critical driver of food price inflation has been the impact of natural disasters—such as droughts, floods, and hurricanes—on the nation’s agricultural output.

In April 2025, a devastating weather system massively flooded corn, rice, soybean, and wheat crops in eastern Arkansas, affecting 31% of agricultural acreage in the region and inflicting an estimated $99 million worth of damage. Similarly, the agricultural industry in Florida was devastated by a series of historic freezes during the 2025-2026 winter season. Prolonged subfreezing temperatures across several counties caused more than $3.1 billion in agricultural losses to key commodities like sugarcane, citrus, and strawberries, prompting the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to issue a federal disaster declaration to help producers recover.

The increased frequency of natural hazards has created a challenging environment for farmers. However, the effects of climate- and weather-related disasters are not uniform, varying greatly depending on location. To pinpoint where these events are having the greatest impact on farmers and the nation’s food supply, researchers at Trace One—a company providing AI-powered product lifecycle management (PLM) and regulatory compliance software to brands in food & beverage, cosmetics, and chemicals—conducted an in-depth analysis of the latest data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Here’s what they found.

Here are the key takeaways from the analysis:

  • According to the USDA, there are just under 1.9 million farms in the U.S. that are responsible for producing nearly $527 billion in crop and livestock value annually.
  • FEMA estimates that the U.S. loses approximately $5.1 billion in agricultural value each year due to natural hazards—primarily drought—or more than $2,700 per farm.
  • California, which produces 11.6% of the nation’s total agricultural value, disproportionately bears 22.7% of the total losses caused by natural hazards, amounting to $1.2 billion annually.
  • Fresno County in California has an expected annual loss of over $244 million, the most of any county in the U.S., which equates to more than $55,000 lost per farm each year.
  • All but three of the top 10 counties with the greatest expected annual losses are located in California.
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Where Natural Disasters Are Having the Biggest Impact on the Nation's Food Supply
Where Natural Disasters Are Having the Biggest Impact on the Nation's Food Supply
Climate disasters are no longer just destroying crops—they’re disrupting the entire U.S. food supply chain. From record drought across more than half the country to worsening wheat losses in Kansas and active wildfires threatening key agricultural regions, climate shocks are increasingly affecting how food is grown, transported, and priced in the United States. What once looked like isolated weather events are now creating interconnected supply-chain risks with direct consequences for consumers, retailers, and food manufacturers alike. This report breaks down the regions where natural disasters are having the greatest impact on America’s food system. 1 min