Methodology
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The data used in this study is from FEMA’s National Risk Index and the USDA’s Census of Agriculture. To identify locations where natural hazards have the greatest impact on the nation’s food supply, researchers at Trace One analyzed and ranked locations based on their average annual economic loss (expected annual loss) in 2026 dollars within the agricultural sector. This metric accounts for damages caused by natural hazards such as droughts, cold waves, hail, heat waves, hurricanes, inland flooding, strong winds, tornadoes, wildfires, and winter weather events, using data collected since 1996. Total farm data was derived using 2022 county data and 2025 state data, the latest available data provided from the USDA. In the event of a tie, locations with greater expected annual losses per farm were ranked higher. The analysis also incorporated the expected annual loss rate, calculated as the expected annual loss divided by the total annual value of the agricultural sector for each location. Additionally, researchers identified the worst natural hazard for agriculture in each location, which is the hazard contributing the largest share of the expected annual loss.
For complete results, see Where Natural Disasters Are Having the Biggest Impact on the Nation's Food Supply on Trace One.
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